Lecture on Global Spillovers, Multilateral Cooperation and WTO Reform | 2019

2019-12-04

Lecture on Global Spillovers, Multilateral Cooperation and WTO Reform

 

Program Sequence

 

6:45 pm: Registration

 

7:00 pm: Welcome remarks by Prof. Anwarul Hoda, Chair Professor of ICRIER’s Trade Policy and WTO Research Programme, ICRIER

 

7:05 pm: Lecture by Prof. Bernard Hoekman, Robert Schuman Chair, Director of the Global Economics Research Area of the Global Governance Programme, Dean of External Relations
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7:45 pm: Q & A

 

8:10 pm: Vote of Thanks by Dr. Anirudh Shingal

 

8:15 pm: Dinner


Lecture on Gender Parity and Leadership: Key to growth and development | 2017

2017-02-07

Lecture on Gender Parity and Leadership: Key to growth and development

by Dr. Kalpana Kochhar, Director, Human Resources Department, International Monetary Fund on the topic “Gender Parity and Leadership: Key to growth and development”

Date: February 7, 2017 at 3:00 pm

Place: ICRIER Conference Hall, Core 6A, 4th Floor, India Habitat Center, Lodhi Road, New Delhi, 110003


Lectures by U.S. Experts on Climate and Environmental Issues | 2016

2016-06-27

Lectures by U.S. Experts on Climate and Environmental Issues

Venue: ICRIER Conference Room Core 6A, 4th Floor

India Habitat Centre, Lodi Road, New Delhi

Date: Monday, June 27, 2016

  

2.45 – 3.00 pm Registration

3.00 – 3.05 pm Welcome address: Dr. Soan Ray, Senior Fellow, ICRIER

3.05 – 4.05 pm Speakers:

Ben Paulos - Principal, Paulos Analysis (Expertise: Renewable Energy)

Ravi Vora - Advisor, International Programs - Renewable Energy & Grid Integration, National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) (Expertise: Energy/Climate Finance)

Neal De Snoo - Clean Energy Policy Advisor (Expertise: Energy Efficiency)

Michael Snyder- Commissioner of Vermont Forests, Parks and Recreation, State of Vermont (Expertise: Forest Management)

4.05 – 4.25 pm Q&A

4.25 – 4.30 pm Vote of thanks


6th K. B. Lall Memorial Lecture by Dr. Raghuram Rajan, Governor, Reserve Bank of India | 2016

2016-05-07

6th K. B. Lall Memorial Lecture 

by Dr. Raghuram Rajan, Governor, Reserve Bank of India

Date: May 7, 2016

Venue:Nehru Memorial Museum & Library, Teen Murti Bhawan, New Delhi, Delhi 110011


Lecture on Why has the global recovery disappointed? by Dr. Ashoka Mody | 2014

2014-01-08

Lecture:Why has the global recovery disappointed? And what does that tell us about the prospects
Speaker:Dr. Ashoka Mody
Place:New Delhi
Venue:Habitat Centre, New Delhi
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5th K. B. Lall Memorial lecture on Growth Prospects and Challenges in the Coming Decade by Prof. Michael Spence, New York University | 2013

2013-11-21


 


5th K. B. Lall Memorial Lecture on Growth Prospects and Challenges in the Coming Decade
by Prof. Michael Spence, Nobel Laureate and Professor of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University

Date: November 21, 2013
Venue: India Habitat Centre, New Delhi

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Lecture on Normalizing India-Pakistan Trade Relations | 2013

2013-11-07

Lecture:Normalizing India - Pakistan Trade Relations
Speaker:by Mr. Zafar Mahmood & Dr. Rahul Khullar
Place:New Delhi


Lecture on Normalizing India - Pakistan Trade Relations | 2013

2013-02-05

Lecture:Normalizing India - Pakistan Trade Relations
Speaker:Dr. Ishrat Hussain, Dean and Director, Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi
Place:New Delhi
Venue:Gulmohar, India Habitat Centre, New Delhi
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Lecture on Economic Growth in a Multipolar World | 2012

2012-01-12

Lecture:Economic Growth in a Multipolar World
Speaker:Nobel Laureate A. Michael Spence
Venue:The Claridges Hotels & Resorts, 12 Aurangzeb Road, New Delhi - 110011
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Lecture on Threats to internal Security from money laundering & terrorist financing flows | 2011

2011-11-25

Lecture:Threats to internal Security from money laundering & terrorist financing flows.
Speaker:Ajay Badyal, Head of the Assurance and Advisory Services Unit at Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Place:ICRIER Conference Room, India habitat Centre, Lodi Road, New Delhi.
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Lecture on The Global Economy in Confusion: What should Asia do? | 2011

2011-10-10

Lecture:The Global Economy in Confusion: What should Asia do?
Speaker:Professor Andrew L. T. Sheng, President, Fung Global Institute, Hong Kong
Venue:ICRIER Conference Room
New Delhi
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Lecture on 4th Dr. K.B. Lall Memorial | 2011

2011-09-15

Lecture:4th Dr. K.B. Lall Memorial
Speaker:Prof. David Vines
Place:New Delhi
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Lecture on Dealing with the Global Financial Crisis in Developing East and Southeast Asia | 2010

2010-11-04

Lecture:Dealing with the Global Financial Crisis in Developing East and Southeast Asia
Speaker:C. Lawrence Greenwood
Venue:ICRIER Conference Room
New Delhi


Lecture on Globalisation and Development After the Crisis | 2010

2010-02-09

Lecture:Globalisation and Development After the Crisis
Speaker:Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times
Venue:The Auditorium, India International Centre, Lodhi State, New Delhi
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Lecture on Building an equitable agreement on Climate Change | 2009

2009-11-09

Lecture:Building an Equitable Agreement on Climate Change
Chair:Mr. Jairam Ramesh, Minister of State, Ministry of Environment and Forests
Welcome Remarks:Dr. Isher Judge Ahluwalia, Chairperson, ICRIER
Speakers:Lord Nicholas Stern
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Special Comments:Mr. N. K. Singh, Member of Parliament, Rajya Sabha
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Vote of Thanks:Dr. Rajiv Kumar, Director & CE, ICRIER
Venue:The Royal Ballroom, Imperial Hotel
New Delhi


Lecture on Climate Change, Mitigation and Developing Country Growth | 2009

2009-09-07

Lecture:Climate Change, Mitigation and Developing Country Growth
Chair:Dr. Isher Judge Ahluwalia, Chairperson, ICRIER
Welcome Remarks:Dr. Rajiv Kumar, Director & CE, ICRIER
Speakers:Prof. Michael Spence
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Venue:The Viceregal Hall of Hotel Claridges, Aurangzeb Road
New Delhi


Lecture on Organizing to Cope with Global Warming | 2009

2009-06-22

Lecture:Organizing to Cope with Global Warming
Chair:Dr. Shankar N. Acharya, Member, Board of Governors, ICRIER
Welcome Remarks:Dr. Rajiv Kumar, Director & CE, ICRIER
Speakers:Professor Thomas C. Schelling, Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland
Vote of Thanks:Dr. Roberto Zagha, Country Director for India, The World Bank
Venue:Hotel Shangri-La, Vyas Hall, 19, Ashoka Road
New Delhi


Lecture on Understanding the Global Financial and Economic Crisis and the Way Forward | 2009

2009-02-12

Lecture:Understanding the Global Financial and Economic Crisis and the Way Forward
Chair:Dr. Vijay Kelkar, Chairman, Thirteenth Finance Commission
Welcome Remarks:Mr. N K Singh, Member of Parliament, Rajya Sabha
Speakers:Prof. Olivier Blanchard
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Vote of Thanks:Dr. Isher Judge Ahluwalia, Chairperson, ICRIER
Venue:The Viceregal Hall of Hotel Claridges, Aurangzeb Road
New Delhi


3rd Dr. K.B. Lall Memorial Lecture on From Asian to Global Financial Crises – An Asian perspective | 2009

2009-02-07

Lecture:From Asian to Global Financial Crises: An Asian Perspective
Chair:Dr. Isher Judge Ahluwalia, Chairperson, ICRIER
Welcome Remarks:Dr. Rajiv Kumar, Director & CE, ICRIER
Speakers:Prof. Andrew Sheng
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Vote of Thanks:Dr. Rajiv Kumar
Venue:The Stein Auditorium, India Habitat Centre, Lodi Road,
New Delhi 110003




2nd K B Lall Memorial Lecture on Global Warming and Global Finance | 2007

2007-04-17

2nd K B Lall Memorial Lecture on Global Warming and Global Finance
 

By Prof.Lawrence H. Summers,
former US Treasury Secretary and presently Charles W. Eliot University Profess or of Harvard University

April 17, 2007

 
As part of ICRIER’s on-going Silver Jubilee celebrations, ICRIER organized the 2nd K. B. Lall Memorial Lecture “On Global Warming and Global Finance” delivered by Prof. Lawrence H. Summers on April 17, 2007. The lecture was chaired by Mr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission. Dr. K. B. Lall, the Founder Chairman of ICRIER was recognized as a visionary civil servant and nurtured ICRIER in its formative years. The first K. B. Lall Lecture was delivered by Dr. Mervyn King, the then Deputy Governor of the Bank of England.
Full Text available in PDF


6th India-Korea Dialogue: India-Korea Bilateral Cooperation in the Era of Asian Economic Integration | 2006

2006-12-11

6th India-Korea Dialogue: India-Korea Bilateral Cooperation in the Era of Asian Economic Integration
 
 

December 11-12, 2006
 
ICRIER jointly with the Seoul Forum for International Affairs (SFIA), Seoul organized the sixth India- Korea Dialogue on December 11-12, 2006 in New Delhi. The dialogue brought together leading industry representatives, defence and security analysts and economists from both the countries. Mr. Shashank, former Foreign Secretary, Government of India led the Indian Delegation. Professor Kim Dalchoong, Program Chair, SFIA led the Korean Delegation. The broad theme of the Dialogue was “India - Korea Bilateral Cooperation in the Era of Asian Economic Integration.” Discussions spread over a day and a half covered issues relating to bilateral economic relations between India and Korea, the rise of India and China and its implications for an integrated Asian economy, political and strategic issues with reference to Northeast Asia and South Asia as also bilateral cooperation in the areas of defence and human resource development. A joint statement was issued after the conclusion of the dialogue. Both sides reaffirmed the existing friendly relations between the two countries and acknowledged the great potential for further cooperation in various fields.


Lecture on Global warming: The known, the unknown, and the unknowable | 2006

2006-10-06

"Global Warming: The Known, The Unknown, and The Unknowable"
 
 

by Professor Jagdish Shukla
Friday October 06, 2006
 
Professor Jagdish Shukla, Distinguished Professor at the George Mason University and President, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Maryland, USA gave a talk on “Global Warming: The Known, The Unknown, and The Unknowable.” Mr. Kapil Sibal, Union Minister for State for Science, Technology and Ocean Development, chaired the session. Professor Shukla described global warming as a manifestation of the excess carbon di-oxide and methane in the atmosphere. These gases trap terrestrial heat and generate instabilities in climatic conditions. Apart from the changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, there are natural variations--better known as hydrodynamic instabilities--that interact with the oceans and forests to produce large fluctuations in the climate from year to year. Global warming affects the equilibrium temperature of the earth. Changes such as a decline in the snow cover in the northern hemisphere, delayed freezing of lakes by at least six days, loss of mass in glaciers and ice caps, increase in temperature of permafrost and frozen areas by 2 to 4 degrees etc can be seen as examples of this phenomenon. Most importantly, he said, global temperature has increased by 0.75 degrees and sea level has been rising by about 2 mm per year for the last 50 years. He therefore emphasized the need to develop sophistica-ted models that would help reduce the uncertainty associated with the determination of global warming and its effects. Professor Shukla reiterated that the ability to make predictions about the weather over a short span of time was constrained primarily by the lack of high resolution models. He emphasized the need to develop scientific manpower and models in India in order to utilize the existing data effectively and bring out the likely impact on Indian agriculture. 


Lecture on Suspension of DOHA Round and its Implications | 2006

2006-07-31

Suspension of DOHA Round and its Implications
 
 

July 31, 2006
 
An interactive session was organized by ICRIER on July 31, 2006 on'Suspension of DOHA Round and its Implications'. The objective of the lecture was to brief the assembled participants about the developments at the July 23-24 G-6 meeting at Geneva that concluded inconclusively leading to the suspension of the Doha Round of negotiations. 

Mr. Gopal Pillai, Special Secretary and chief negotiator of Government of India led the discussion and appraised the audience about the reasons and factors that lead to the present stalemate. He was of the opinion that how soon the talks would resume will depend entirely on the outcome of the US-midterm elections scheduled to be held in November this year.

Mr Pillai in his lecture highlighted the main issues that emerged during the proceedings of the July G6 Ministerial Meet held in Geneva. He said that the failure of the twelve and half hours long meeting aimed at resolving the contentious gaps in agriculture, domestic support and NAMA lead to the suspension of the Doha Round and has brought all previous commitments to a standstill. Also, given that DDA is a single undertaking agreement, commitments made by negotiators at the Hong Kong ministerial on the other issues will not be binding now and fulfilling them will be now up to the individual countries.

At the G6 meeting, Mr Pillai noted, Mr Lamy’s agenda broadly consisted of two rounds. Round 1 included discussions on Agricultural Market Access (AMA), Domestic Support and NAMA, comprising the specific issues within each of them: AMA - the ambition in terms of cuts, what would be the proportionality of cuts for developing countries, treatment sensitive and special products and special safeguard mechanism, Domestic support – the cuts and disciplines on the various boxes and NAMA-coefficients for the Swiss formula, Para 8 flexibilities, treatment of unbound lines. Round 2 was to be on sectoral issues.

The meeting began with discussions on Market Access because the US was concerned that only if they could move on market access then could any movement on other issues be possible. The major part of the meeting was concentrated on discussions market access. The EU made the first movement and said that they would take a cut to an equivalent of average of 51-51.5%, up from the earlier 39%. On the issue of treatment of sensitive products, the EU said that while it would stick to the its current norms of percentage of import volumes but agreed to also put a benchmark of 2-2.5% of current consumption, which according to Mr Pillai was a positive move. On the issue of reaching a percentage to be included as total number of sensitive products, a convergence to 4% of total tariff lines seemed possible. 

Mr Pillai summarised that after the ten hours of discussion on Market access, what was on the table was a 100% cut on subsidies by 2013, domestic support cut raised to 70-75% of trade distorting support, and a 51% tariff cut. This according to Mr Lamy was two to three times higher than the Uruguay Rounds.

However, on the issue of domestic support where the US was expected to show movement, little was offered. US maintained that the October proposal was a real cut in AMS which would bind them to a total package of 23 bn dollars (as opposed to a 2005 farm support of 19.6 bn). But finally after some discussion the US said that what they do not see enough on market access and therefore they would not move at all. This, according to Mr Pillai, was extreme intransigence on the part of the US, as their offer would not bind below current level of support.

At this point, Mr Pillai said, the negotiations unravelled and NAMA did not even come up for discussion. He opined that a conclusion could have been reached since there already was resolution on export subsidies and a 75% cut on domestic support. According him there was a near 80% chance of striking a deal. But at this juncture Mr Lamy closed all discussions and the negotiations got stymied.

Mr Pillai felt that it was ironical that the talks failed on issues of agricultural market access, since for most developed countries agriculture is only about 2% of employment and GDP. They had more to gain from services and NAMA that comprise 98% of developed country GDP. Mr Pillai opined that although everyone was a loser, developed countries are the bigger losers as for the first time things were looking to move in NAMA and services and this was an opportunity lost.

However, Mr Pillai said that India has not really lost much, since 75% of its trade falls outside the ambit of WTO negotiations and the government will now actively pursue bilateral trade negotiations. He added that one area where India could have gained was on the grounds of reduction of domestic support as no bilateral or regional agreements would help India to ensure cuts in domestic support. He felt that given a landing ground for an agreement is there, the only way forward is to wait and watch the outcome of the US mid-term elections. 





Lecture on The Role of Central Banks in Fostering Economic Growth | 2006

2006-02-15

The Role of Central Banks in Fostering Economic Growth
 


Dr. Ronald I. McKinnon
February 15, 2006
 
As part of its special lecture series, ICRIER organised a lecture on "The Role of Central Banks in Fostering Economic Growth" by Dr. Ronald I. McKinnon, William D. Eberle Professor of International Economics, Stanford University on February 15, 2006.

In the last few decades, there have been major changes in the way people view the Central Bank. In the current situation, when the developing countries are living in a state of “conflicted virtue”, it is very important to understand the role of Central Banks in fostering growth. But this task will be very difficult unless we take a historical perspective of this issue.

Before 1930, under the Gold Standard, the role of the Central Banks was set out very clearly. They were the guardians of the economy. Constrained by gold convertibility, it was a time, when economies had fixed exchange rates and endogenous money supply. At that time, though they didn’t have any direct regulatory function, Central Banks worked as the lender of last resort in case of liquidity crises to retain external convertibility.

After the First World War, gold standard suffered a major setback. In 1930s, inflation started to increase; there was shrinkage in the supply of gold, hence deflationary pressure started to build up. At the beginning of the great depression, in 1931, interest rate started to rise in US. Reacting to this calamity, we had Keynes to write his famous book – ‘The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money’ in 1936. His idea was to provide national autonomy to ensure full employment. His plan was very liberal in allowing countries to inflate. But it made almost no mention of Balance of Payment or Trade Policies. Influenced by his work, the Central Banks became agents for promoting employment nationally. They were no longer bound by BOP constraints. This is when the trade off between employment and inflation was established by the use of Phillips Curve. The concept became influential in determining the thought process of the regulators at that time.

In the 1940s, different countries worked for reestablishment of fixed exchange rate regime. The main reason behind this was the inflation which they experienced in the post World War II period. In Europe, 15-16 countries started paying in dollar, stabilizing the exchange rate volatility. In Japan, they followed a different path of fiscal consolidation, which is also known as the Dodge plan. In both the cases, these measures were successful. Western EU recovery and the Japan Plan brought back those economies in proper track. In the post war period, there was pressure on Britain from US to dismantle all the regional currency boards. But UK treasury, which wanted to keep starling area, resisted this move. However, most of the ex-British colonies later chose their own currencies. 

In the 1950s and 60s, the Central Banks worked as agents to the governments to allocate credit to direct commercial bank loans, maintain high reserve requirements and capital controls on international payments. This resulted to the financial repression during that period.

In the late 60s, USD started to inflate because of the poor financing of the Vietnam War. The Latin American and African countries also experienced high inflation rates at that time. During this period, the Central banks used to mobilize resources. There was a major push on industrialization at that time. The central banks also used to take part in long term capital lending. The other role which the Central Banks played at that time was the role of the regulator. The interest rate structure became very pragmatic. In real term, the interest rate became negative. There was shrinkage of banking resources also.

In the 70s, there was a huge growth of the unregulated euro currency markets, which started during the 60s. It was a regime of deposit insurance. The managers could gamble, since they were insured by the government. This led to the problem of moral hazard. This problem was aggravated by international competition. Since the international players didn’t have any capital requirement, it led to reduction in the capital requirements of the local banks also. This made them vulnerable to banking crises. And as a result, US faced a banking crisis in 1980s; Western Europe faced it in the late 1980s. As an answer to these crises, the first Basel Accord came out in 1989. The biggest risk for the developing countries is the exchange rate risk. Basel Accord tries to address that issue. But inter bank lending was completely kept out of this accord, which in turn led to the South Asian crises later.

The 90s saw a number of banking crises followed by currency crises. During this period, private capital flows to developing countries largely displaced the official development assistance. This period saw a spread of official deposit insurance to more than 70 countries. Except in China and South Asia, most of the other countries loosened the capital control. The interest ceiling was lifted. The Central Banks are not activist intermediaries any more. Phillips Curve is no more accepted. There has been recognition for the fact that using the Central Bank as a direct agent in capital market runs risk of financial repression and a loss of monetary control with inflation. There are no private or official direct borrowings from Central Banks. But regulatory oversight and crisis management role of the Central Banks still remain intact.

This has led to the problem of non-availability of long term finances for the developing countries. Apart from few countries like India, the bond market is not very effective in the Developing Countries. An answer to this problem can be setting up of local development banks. China has successfully developed China Development Bank to cater to the needs of the long term finances. Similar measures can be taken by other countries also.

In conclusion, the speaker asked the important question – should the Central Banks target the exchange rate? His answer was exchange rate should be given more weight. Most of the East Asian countries have tried to fix a soft peg to Exchange rate. And they have been successful so far by doing so. Independent Central Banks should also think of stabilizing the exchange rate.

The speaker started with the concept of conflicted virtue. He explained it at the end of his speech. The Asian countries are good savers, so they are virtuous by the Victorian concept. This huge saving has made them run in foreign exchange surplus. US, being a deficit economy for long, put pressure on these economies to appreciate their currency. So these countries are always under the pressure from US. So, these developing countries are actually living in a state of “conflicted Virtue”.

After the lecture, Prof. McKinnon took few questions from the audience. Answering to a question on if the sterilization policy taken by China has any deep impact in the economy, he said that though China is buying a lot of USD for the last few years, and they are running in Foreign Exchange surplus, due to high growth rate and raise in GNP, there is a huge increase in the demand for this increasing money base.. Furthermore, for China, sterilization policies are almost painless. The domestic inter bank interest rate in China is 1.37%, whereas it is 4.5% in US. So, they buy US treasury bonds at a much higher interest rate and sell Central Bank bonds at their domestic interest rate. Answering a question about the increasing imbalance in the world economy, he agreed that the economic imbalance is creating a kind of trap. US is running a deficit economy, on the other hand, the Asian countries are saving a lot. But there is no exchange rate solution to this. To solve this, US government has to save more. But the current administration is not following that path. He opined however, that the world economy is doing well under these circumstances. In the concluding question, Prof. Shankar Acharya, Chair of the session, asked if there is any chance of any swing in the trap. Prof McKinnon answered that it is almost impossible to attack the USD, since it is the only debtor country in the world which can debt in its own currency. So in his opinion, there is no such indication of the trap being reversed.

In the end, Prof. Rajiv Kumar, director, ICRIER, delivered his vote of thanks.


Lecture on India’s Development Strategy: Which Way Now? | 2006

2006-01-17

India’s Development Strategy: Which Way Now?
 
 

Prof. Jagdish Bhagwati, University Professor, Economics and Law, at Columbia University

January 17, 2006


Financial Stability during Periods of High Growth and Low Inflation: The Role of the IMF by Mr. Willy Kiekens, Executive Director, IMF | 2005

2005-12-29

Financial Stability during Periods of High Growth and Low Inflation: The Role of the IMF
 


December 29, 2005
 
ICRIER organized a lecture on ‘Preserving Financial Stability during periods of high growth and low Inflation-The Role of the IMF’ by IMF Executive Director Mr. Willy Kiekens.

With low inflation and increasingly independent and credible central banks, monetary stability has been established. Nevertheless, with the liberalization of financial sectors and international capital flows, asset price volatility and the incidence of financial crises have risen significantly, both in advanced economies and in emerging markets.

How the changes in the monetary and financial regimes during the last couple of decades explain the emergence of financial imbalances in the global economy and have increased the threat to financial stability, notwithstanding prudent monetary policies was the main subject of a talk delivered by Mr. Kiekens.

Mr. Kiekens emphasized on how, in the aftermath of the Asian Crisis, (i) the IMF has adjusted its surveillance to better diagnose the build up of excessive risks and imbalances; and (ii) the IMF has advised fiscal, monetary and prudential supervisory authorities in preserving financial stability while liberalizing the financial sector and international capital flows.

He talked about three basic questions: What are the lessons and new insights for safeguarding financial stability? How the funds adjusted its activities and policies to contribute more successfully to safe guard financial stability? And finally how the funds assess the challenges India faces in preserving financial stability?

He advised that the way the government can influence markets is no longer through direct intervention but with policy changes that are sufficiently credible to anchor, or alter the expectations that affect market prices. Financial stability depends on sound risk management decisions by mangers of financial institutions and corporations. Making sure that the governance structures promote such sound decisions is an integral part of safeguarding financial stability.

Mr. Kiekens talked about how the IMF has indeed changed dramatically during the last ten years in response to the recurrent banking and capital account crises. These changes can be divided into three categories: (i) improving transparency and timely information of markets, (ii) better analysis of the dynamics and vulnerabilities in the main sector of the economy and the linkages among them, and (iii) advising policies that anchor expectations, promote flexibility in adjusting to shocks and shifts, and liberalize international capital movements prudently.

Speaking on the role of IMF on India, he said that they support India’s cautious approach to liberalizing the capital account. He further pointed out that FDI in India is low as compared to other successful emerging markets. Improving the business climate and further lifting restrictions on foreign participation in Indian companies and banks will be beneficial. He highlighted that the stress tests, conducted by IMF, show that the Indian banking sector as a whole is resilient to a tightening of provision requirements and to deteriorations in credit quality that is typical in periods of rapid growth. Thus, many banks will only be able to sustain continued high credit growth if they are also successful in raising new capital. He also said that staff fully supports the Reserve Bank’s initiative to raise consumer awareness and fight unfair lending practices.

Mr. T. N. Ninan, Editor, Business Standard chaired the lecture. 


International Trade in Education Services What Should India Do? by Prof. Stephen Heyneman, Professor of International Education Policy at the Vanderbilt University | 2005

2005-12-28

International Trade in Education Services What Should India Do?
 


December 28, 2005

 
Jointly with the United States Educational Foundation in India (USEFI), ICRIER organized a lecture by Prof. Stephen Heyneman, Professor of International Education Policy at the Vanderbilt University on ‘International Trade in Education Services: What Should India Do?’ on December 28, 2005 at ICRIER.

Prof. Heyneman has been with the World Bank looking after the education sector for over twenty years from 1977 to 1998. He is currently Fulbright New Century Scholar on Higher Education from the USA. In course of his long professional and academic career, he has closely looked at the economic and trade issues associated with educational commerce.

Pointing out the fact that education is among the services being traded, and has been included for discussions under the GATS framework, Prof. Heyneman analysed the concerns expressed by many scholars about classifying education as a traded service. Describing the content of education sector commerce, and defining the terms used in that trade, he reviewed the current status of education quality around the world, and explained why education is increasingly a factor of international trade. He reviewed the arguments for and against the trend to reduce barriers to education trade.

He justified competition in education services (that is underpinning of trade in education services) not merely as an article of faith and from some practical reasons like efficiency, but for furthering a basic human right. He argued that public interest is served best when each member of the public has access to the higher education it wants. Every monopoly abrogates this right of the public. Any nation that does not allow public the access to the education, it wants, abrogates a human right.

In the end, he weighed arguments both for and against India’s participation in education trade and suggested that it would be morally, economically, and educationally intelligent for India to do so.

The lecture session was chaired by Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director (ICRIER). Dr. Jane E. Schukoske, Executive Director, USEFI welcomed the audience. The lecture session was attended by eminent academicians, both from the public and private sector, researchers, thinkers and policy makers.


Will Europe still be a World Economic Player in the 21st Century? Prof. Jean Pisani-Ferry | 2005

2005-11-25

Will Europe still be a World Economic Player in the 21st Century?
 
November 25, 2005
 
ICRIER organized a lecture jointly with the Embassy of France in India and Euro India Centre on ‘Will Europe still be a World Economic Player in the 21st Century’ by Professor Jean Pisani-Ferry, Head Bruegel Center, Brussels on November 25, 2005. 

Pisani-Ferry reflected on the international economic role of the EU (with political pressure starting to rise in favour of a reduction of Europe’s weight in international organizations), its representation in international economic institutions; the way it uses its power; the choices it faces and the potential role it can play in the rebalancing of power in the multilateral system to reflect rising economic powers like India and China? 

Countering the growing perception that the EU is on the decline and does not respond well to global economic challenges, Pisani-Ferry argues that the EU is the clear winner and a dominant player. This is evident through its dominant share in several international institutions – the G7, the OECD, and the international energy agency and also its significant share of membership in global institutions such as the WTO or Bretton Woods Institutions. 

Quoting Vijay Kelkar and co-authors, he notes that the “combined votes of Brazil, China and India in the Bretton Woods institutions are 19% less than those of Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands, while their combined GDPs at market exchange rates are 23% higher, their combined GDPs at PPP exchange rates are four times higher, and their populations are 29 times higher. These are astonishing figures, which may explain why the Asian countries feel so little ownership in the Bretton Woods institutions.” 

However, he questions whether the EU makes effective use of its institutional power to set or atleast to shape the architecture or agenda of the multilateral system. To assess this, he addresses three key domains pointing out the limits in each. For instance, in international trade, EU has not been able to develop a consistent strategy. In the area of currency, although Europe has made economic and institutional investment in the creation of a common currency and the setting up of support institutions, since the launch of the euro, neither the EU as a whole nor the euro area have expressed strong intentions to build on it to enhance the international role. Even in the area of international finance, EU’s effective role does not seem to be commensurate to its potential role that its representation in the Bretton Woods organizations could allow it to play. 

The policy issues according to him are evident: “Over representation in the international institutions and weaker use of power is unsustainable. The EU has an opportunity to trade off formal, but partially ineffective power for a formally diminished, but more effective influence in world economic affairs. For this to happen, it needs to sieze the opportunity of the call for a rebalancing of representations in the IMF and other institutions and grouping and reform of its own external representation. This does not need to imply a complete federalisation of external representation, which would not correspond to existing internal arrangements and for that reason would not be effective. The supervised delegation model in use in the trade field offers a middle path. It allows member states to retain control rights through the definition of a mandate and the supervision of its implementation.” 

The lecture was chaired by Dr. Isher Judge Ahluwalia, Chairperson, ICRIER. It was attended by academicians, policy makers, thinkers and researchers.


High Debt Emerging Market Macroeconomics: Turkey, Brazil and other experiences Prof. Kemal Dervi? | 2005

2005-11-11

High Debt Emerging Market Macroeconomics: Turkey, Brazil and other experiences
 


November 11, 2005

 
ICRIER organized a lecture by Kemal Dervi?, Administrator, UNDP and UN Under Secretary General on November 11, 2005. The lecture was organized jointly with NCAER and the UNDP at ASSOCHAM. 

Dr. Dervi? started as the new head of the UNDP in August 2005. Prior to this he was a member of the Turkish Parliament and has also served as Minister, Economic Affairs and the Treasury, Republic of Turkey. He has played a significant role towards Turkey’s recovery programme after the devastating financial crisis that hit the country in February 2001. 

Dr. Dervi? in his lecture discussed the problems faced by high debt economies and how the situation led to the crises of emerging market economies such as Brazil, Turkey, Argentina and Mexico. He pointed out that the average debt to GDP ratio in these economies has been very high — at around 70%, which is unsustainable leading to financial crises. 

In case of Turkey he explained that to overcome the crisis they created a primary surplus by adopting a tight fiscal policy which led to a reduction in social expenditure like education, health etc. He therefore proposed a stability and growth facility programme to address volatility and high debt problems in emerging market economies that would help in achieving social stability and eventually reducing public debt. 

Sharing his views on India, he said that although India has a very high debt to GDP ratio at 81% in 2002, the situation is however very different from high debt economies. He pointed out that the growth rate of high debt economies was significantly lower than real interest rates whereas in the case of India the real GDP growth rate exceeds the real interest rates. This leads the growth dynamics to work more favourably in the case of India. Therefore India’s case is fortunately different, with a low inflation rate, high foreign exchange reserves, capital controls and low exchange rates volatility. Moreover there has not been any debt crisis in India. The other important point vis-à-vis India is that the major part of the public debt is contributed by the internal debt of the public sector making it less vulnerable. 

Having said that, he cautioned that though the situation in India does not seem likely to face a debt event, however, if the debt ratio is allowed to creep up; it could lead to a significant negative impact on growth and investment that could be a drag on the economic activity. He also suggested reduction in fiscal deficit to better manage the debt situation in the country. 

The lecture was very well attended by a number of eminent persons from academia, policy makers, media and various research institutes. Dr. Kirit Parikh, Member, Planning Commission chaired the lecture.


Tripolar World: India, China and USA Dr. Arvind Virmani | 2005

2005-05-18

A Tripolar World: USA, China and India
 
 

May 18, 2005

 
From L to R: Mr. R. M. S. Liberhan, Director, India Habitat Centre, Mr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission and Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER, at the lecture. 

Second Photo: Audience at the Public Lecture 

Public Lecture by Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER May 18, 2005 at India Habitat Centre, New Delhi 

The fast growth of Japan till the seventies led scholars to predict a ‘Pacific Century.’ This talk gradually faded with the bursting of the ‘Japanese Bubble,’ but was revived with the rise of the Asian Tigers. Some called it the Asia-Pacific century while others predicted an ‘Asian century.’ Such talk reached its peak before the Asian crises of 1997-98. In parallel, the world became recognizably unipolar with the collapse of the USSR. Since then talk of multi-polarity has been in the air, joined more recently by sounds of China’s challenge to US uni-polarity. 

This lecture presents a more radical thesis, that the World will be transformed into a Tripolar one by the middle of this century. It asserts that there is little possibility of the World becoming multi-polar. This view is based on the author’s ICRIER Working Papers: “A Tripolar Century: USA, China and India”, No 160, March 2005; “Economic Performance, Power Potential and Global Governance: Towards a New International Order,” No 150, December 2004, and “ China’s Socialist Market Economy: Lessons of Success”, ICRIER Occasional Policy Paper, April 2005. 

One must recognize that long term forecasts have a very high degree of uncertainty. These risks do not however disappear if we assume that the future will be like the present (as most people tacitly do). Forecasts are essential for effective planning of National and International security policies. If the author’s projections of the global economy approximate reality, they will have profound implications for the USA, India, European Union and Japan and the emergence of a New International order.
 
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Innovations, Institutions and Economic Performance Prof. Edmund S. Phelps | 2004

2004-12-30

Innovations, Institutions and Economic Performance
 


December 30, 2004

 
From L to R: Prof. Edmund S. Phelps, McVickar Professor of Political Economy, Columbia University, Mr. Nitin Desai, Honorary Professor, ICRIER and Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER, at the lecture. 

ICRIER organised a public lecture by Professor Edmund S. Phelps, McVickar Professor of Political Economy, Columbia University on 'Innovations, Institutions and Economic Performance'. Professor Phelps's talk stressed on the impact of institutions on innovativeness in the economy, which has an impact on productivity, which in turn raises wages thus widening peoples' choices of careers and goods. 

Even further, innovations as he went on to explain, helped generate change and mental stimulation for people in their work. To assess the effectiveness of the institutions, his research looked at three levels of innovational activity: adoption of innovations; adaptation for domestic use; and origination. The implication: how much dynamism an economy has depends on the presence of institutions that facilitate and motivate adoption and adaptation - and origination in exceptional cases. Professor Phelps suggested that as India is now said to be in the catch up period as was Europe in the 50's and 60's, drawing lessons for India from Europe would be useful. According to him, institutions like company law and corporate governance rules and financial devices like stock exchanges and corporate bond markets could be expected to foster innovation. 

The lecture was attended by experts from research institutes, scholars, and senior officials from the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, and Planning Commission. Mr. Nitin Desai, Honorary Professor, ICRIER chaired the lecture.


Dual Economies Growing: India and China | 2004

2004-12-23

Dual Economies Growing: India and China
 
 

December 23, 2004

 
First Photo: Prof. James Mirrlees, Professor of Political Economy, Cambridge University, and Fellow of Trinity College delivering lecture. Seated are Mr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission and Dr Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER. 

Second Photo: Audience at the Public Lecture. 

Nobel Laureate Prof. James Mirrlees, Professor of Political Economy and Fellow of Trinity College at the University of Cambridge, delivered an engaging talk on 'Growth and Inequality in Dual Economies' at a Public Lecture organised by ICRIER. Looking at the growth rate of high growth economies, he explained that if we were to look at their growth figures in some detail, it would be hard to understand how growth at the rates observed in China, India, Korea, etc. is technologically possible. According to him, the movement of resources from low productivity to high could help to solve this puzzle. 

Drawing a brilliant analysis of growth rate and inequality in dual economies, Professor Mirrlees suggested modifications of the conventional sources of growth accounting equation. He demonstrated how the standard equation of growth (capital contribution + labour contribution + technological advances) cannot explain the true growth rates because it tends to underestimate the growth rate as in the case of China (5.75%) and India (4.75%). The solution according to him lay in modifying the growth equation to take account of the migration of labour from low productivity/wage sectors to high productivity/wage sectors wherein the shift of labour between these two sectors would then get represented by another term in a growth accounting equation. 

The Lecture was very well attended by academicians, policy makers and analysts, thinkers and researchers. Mr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission chaired the lecture.


Health, Demographic Change and Its Impact on the Economy Prof. David Bloom | 2004

2004-12-21

Health, Demographic Change and Its Impact on the Economy
 


December 21, 2004

 
Prof. David Bloom, Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography, School of Public Health, Harvard University delivering the lecture

Professor David Bloom, Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography, Department of Population and International Health, Harvard School of Public Health, made an insightful presentation on 'Health, Demographic Change and Its Impact on the Economy' at a Public Lecture organised by ICRIER. 

Professor Bloom's lecture elucidated in a graphic way the effects of public health and demographic changes on economic growth. He explained how better public health could increase the productivity, incentive for acquisition of education and investment. He further emphasised that the improved health would also lead to a demographic transition and the so-called demographic dividend. One of the surprising implications of his analysis is that about 3/4th of the difference between China's and India's growth rate during the last 25 years is due to the fact that China had encashed its demographic dividend. In the next 25 years, he suggested, it would be India's turn to have the benefit of this dividend. 

The Lecture was attended by a number of demographers and eminent persons from academia, policy makers, media and various research institutes. It was chaired by Dr. Isher Judge Ahluwalia, Chairperson, Board of Trustees, IFPRI and Board Member, ICRIER.


Speech by Sir Nicholas Stern Sir Nicholas Stern | 2004

2004-09-13

Speech by Sir Nicholas Stern
 


September 13, 2004

 
Sir Nicholas Stern, Second Permanent Secretary to HM Treasury, London and Director, Policy Research, PM's Commission for Africa delivering the speech. On his left is Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER. 

At a talk organised at ICRIER, Sir Nicholas Stern, Second Permanent Secretary to the HM Treasury, London, Head of the Government Economic Service, and Director of Policy Research of the Prime Minister's Commission for Africa, delivered a speech on his Commission for Africa work. 

Launched by Mr. Tony Blair, the Prime Minister of UK, the Commission for Africa was set up in preparation of the UK taking over the Presidency of the G8 and the European Union in 2005. Sir Nick Stern discussed the role of the Commission as being to take a fresh look at Africa: its past, present and future, as well as to make recommendations for action that will help set the priority for the UK Government in 2005 and beyond. 

The seminar was chaired by Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER.


Reality and Myths of India's Economic Growth Dr. Arvind Virmani | 2004

2004-04-12

Reality and Myths of India's Economic Growth
 


Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER 
April 12, 2004

 
From L to R: Mr. R. M. S. Liberhan, Director, India Habitat Centre, Dr. Surjit S. Bhalla, Managing Director, Oxus Research & Investments, Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER, delivering a talk on 'Reality and Myths of India's Economic Growth', jointly organised with India Habitat Centre. 

Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER delivered a lecture on 'Reality and Myths of India's Economic Growth' on April 12, 2004. Dr. Virmani examined two enduring myths that connect the past and the present. One is that the socialist policies of the sixties and seventies were a golden era for the poor. The other, that there was a growth take-off during the nineties the nineties. The period is marked by a decline in poverty rate and increase in economic growth. Dr. Virmani has given due importance to variation in growth rate due to fluctuations in the pattern of monsoon. For the sake of simplification, he has divided the period since independence into two phases, viz. 1950-51 to 1979-80 and 1980-81 to 2003-04 on the basis of agricultural growth rate. 

Dr. Virmani also states that market reforms, viz. Delicencing, raising the ceiling of MRTP, dereservation, Broadbanding, capital good imports etc. though peaked in the 1970s did not help the growth rate to increase due to pressure from agricultural sector. He therefore recommends wider and compatible reforms. The lecture was attended by renowned academicians, researchers, thinkers and policy makers. The lecture was followed by an interactive discussion and exchange of ideas. Dr. Surjit S. Bhalla, Managing Director, Oxus Investments (P) Ltd. chaired the lecture.


Update on Indian Economy Dr. Y V Reddy | 2004

2004-04-07

Update on Indian Economy
 


Dr. Y. V. Reddy, Governor, Reserve Bank of India 
April 7, 2004

 
From L to R: Dr. Y. V. Reddy (Standing), Governor, RBI, Dr. Raj Kaipla, Director & Chief Editor, Academic Foundation, Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER, Dr. (Mrs.) Uma Kapila, Academic Foundation 

Dr. Y. V. Reddy, Governor, Reserve Bank of India, released the book 'Accelerating Growth and Poverty Reduction: A Policy Framework for India's Development' authored by Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER at India Habitat Center, New Delhi on April 7, 2004. On the occasion of the book release Dr. Reddy delivered an illuminating talk 'Update on Indian Economy' in which he provided an update covering development in 3 areas, viz. money and credit, financial markets and external sector and follow-up measures to announcements in the policy statement of November 2003. 

Dr. Reddy said that, broad money (M3) aggregate deposit and non-food credit and inflows have been sterlized through open market operations including the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF). Credit expansion has been most in the housing and retail sectors, followed by expansion of industrial credit. Also the priority sector lending has been remarkable. According to him, the financial sector has been steady; foreign exchange market orderly, BOP position comfortable and capital inflows robust overall despite minor cliches the external sector displays a happy picture. The Follow-up measures include two internal groups to recommend policy changes - one on Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) and the other on Instruments of Sterilization, which would enable the RBI to improve liquidity management in the economy, to maintain stability in foreign exchange market and conduct a sound monetary policy. The Banking sector and small-scale sector have been given due importance and have efforts are on to enhance the performance of both. 

He stated that development of the government securities market is an integral part of the reforms process and customer services and simplification of procedures and practices are measures that cannot be afforded to be overlooked.


The Poverty-Growth-Inequality Triangle Dr. Francois Bourguignon, World Bank | 2004

2004-02-04

The Poverty-Growth-Inequality Triangle
 


Dr. François Bourguignon, World Bank, Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President, World Bank 
February 4, 2004

 
From L to R: Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER, Prof. Deepak Nayyar, Vice Chancellor, Delhi University, Dr. François Bourguignon, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, the World Bank, giving lecture on 'The Poverty-Growth-Inequality Triangle', jointly organised with the World Bank 

The World Bank's Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Dr. François Bourguignon, delivered a lecture on 'Poverty-Growth-Inequality Triangle' organised jointly by ICRIER and the World Bank at India Habitat Centre on February 4, 2004. The focus of Dr. Bourguignon's talk was on the age-old controversy whether the development strategy should lay emphasis on growth or poverty reduction or on addressing inequality. In his lecture he brought out the power of distributional changes for poverty reduction. He emphasised that for poverty reduction, it is not just growth in income that matters but also how the growth leads to changes in income distribution. In some cases the changes in distribution may even offset the positive effects of growth on poverty, he stated. Dr. Bourguignon's point was that the real controversy is whether growth and distribution are independent of each other, or are they both inter-linked. Two important points to be considered according to him were, first, that growth and income distribution should be considered simultaneously and to recognise that income distribution matters as much as growth for poverty reduction. The second, that country specificity matters a great deal. 

The lecture was attended by a number of eminent persons from academia, policy makers, media and various research institutes. Dr. Deepak Nayyar, Vice Chancellor, Delhi University chaired the lecture. Introductory Remarks were made by Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER.


The World Bank of the Future: Making Aid Work Prof. Abhijit Banerji | 2003

2003-11-17

The World Bank of the Future: Making Aid Work
 


Prof. Abhijit Banerjee, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, 
November 17, 2003

 
Prof. Abhijit Banerjee, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston (centre), delivering a lecture on 'The World Bank of the Future: Making Aid Work', jointly organised with South Asia Network of research Economic research Institutes (SANEI). 

Prof. Abhijit Banerjee, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, delivered a lecture on 'The World Bank of the Future: Making Aid Work' on November 17, 2003. The lecture was jointly organised by ICRIER and the South Asian Network of Economic research Institutes (SANEI) and was held at the India Habitat Centre, New Delhi. Drawing on data for the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for the period 1987-2001, Prof. Banerjee examined whether foreign aid is being spent effectively by evaluating project and sector level data for the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and other public donor organisations. He pointed out that sectors of the economy get more money from the World Bank (and perhaps the ADB) when they are improving faster. Controlling for the rate of improvement, sectors get more money from the Bank (and may be the ADB) when they are performing worse. Prof. Banerjee stated that the correlation of the share of money from the World Bank in a given project to the project's eventual performance is either negative or zero depending on whether we focus on the expected share of funding or the actual share, while for the ADB there is no solid evidence of any correlation. Prof. Banerjee pointed out that lack of a scientific basis for decision making and scepticism about the feasibility of evidence based decision making limits donor effectiveness. He emphasised that the multilateral donor institutions need to rely more on measurable evidence available to test a particular project's efficacy. Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER, chaired the lecture.


Chinese Mercantile: World Consumer Gains, Chinese Worker Loss Dr. Surjit S Bhalla | 2003

2003-11-14

Chinese Mercantile: World Consumer Gains, Chinese Worker Loss
 


Dr. Surjit S Bhalla, Managing Director, Oxus Research & Investment 
November 14, 2003

 
Dr. Srujit S. Bhalla, Managing Director, Oxus Research & Investment (right), delivering a talk on 'Chinese Mercantilism: World Consumer Gains, Chinese Worker Loses', chaired by Dr. Nicholas R Lardy, Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C. (centre), Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER (left). The Lecture was organised by ICRIER. 

Dr. Surjit S. Bhalla, Director, Oxus Research & Investment, delivered a lecture on Chinese Mercantilism: World Consumer Gains, Chinese Worker Loses' on November 14, 2003 at a public lecture organised by ICRIER at the India Habitat Centre, New Delhi. Dr. Bhalla emphasised the nature of exchange rate regimes in both the developed and the developing world for the 'globalisation' period 1980 to 2003. With special reference to China, he attempted to answer two main questions: (i) is the exchange rate undervalued?; and (ii) are there economy-wide gains to undervaluation? He argued that the Chinese Yuan is massively undervalued-even more than the Yen against the US dollar in 1985-no matter what the definition or measure one adopts, and this magnitude of undervaluation is helping the Chinese economy to grow by an extra 2 percentage points a year. On the other hand, the Japanese Yen, the Euro, the Mexican Peso, and the Indian Rupee are all valued fairly. The lecture was chaired by an eminent expert on China and Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., Dr. Nicholas R. Lardy.


Political Economy of Reforms Mariano Tommasi, Univesidad de San | 2003

2003-08-13

Political Economy of Reforms
 


Mariano Tommasi, Chairman of the Department of Economics, Univesidad de San 
August 13, 2003

 
From L to R: Dr. Arvind Virmani, Director & Chief Executive, ICRIER, and Coordinator, SANEI, Prof. Mariano Tommasi, Chairman of the Department of Economics, Universidad de san Andres, Argentina (centre), delivering the lecture 'Political Economy of Reforms' jointly organised with SANEI. Mr. N. K. Singh, Member, Planning Commission, chaired the lecture. 

Prof. Mariano Tommasi, Chairman of the Department of Economics, Universidad de san Andres and Director of the Centre of Studies for Institutional Development, Argentina, delivered a lecture at ICRIER on the 'Political Economy of Reforms' on August 13, 2003. The lecture was organised jointly by ICRIER and the South Asian Network of Economic research Institutes (SANEI). In his lecture, Prof. Tommasi presented some general considerations on the political economy of reform from a Latin American perspective, giving the example of Argentina. Prof. Tommasi emphasised that it is important to focus not on how to play the politics so that we can get reforms through, but on what can be done by countries to improve the quality of their policy-making processes or at least adjust policy recipes to institutional capabilities and incentives. This, he stated, would require political analysis and a history-grounded understanding of the trajectory of each country. Mr. N. K. Singh, Member, Planning Commission, chaired the lecture.



Deficits and Decades : Recent U.S. Economic history and policy lessons for other countries. Jeffery Frankel Harvard University | 2003

2003-01-16

"DEFICITS AND DECADES: RECENT U.S. ECONOMIC HISTORY AND POLICY LESSONS FOR OTHER COUNTRIES"
 


(From L to R: Dr Arvind Virmani, Director, ICRIER, and Prof. Jeffrey Frankel, James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University)

Jeffery Frankel
Harvard University

January 16, 2003
 
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The World Dollar Standard and its crisis-prone periphery : New Rules for the game. Ronald I. McKinnon Stanford University | 2003

2003-01-08

"THE WORLD DOLLAR STANDARD AND ITS CRISIS-PRONE PERIPHERY: NEW RULES FOR THE GAME"
 


From L to R: Dr Arvind Virmani, Director & CE, ICRIER; Dr Vijay Kelkar, Adviser to the Finance Minister; and Dr Ronald McKinnon, Professor, Stanford University at the lecture on ‘The World Dollor Standard and Its Crisis-prone Periphery: New Rules for the Game’

Ronald I. McKinnon
Stanford University

January 8, 2003
 
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Economic Performance of Sri Lanka in the Nineties A.S. Jayawardena Governor,Central Bank of Sri Lanka | 2002

2002-02-19

Economic Performance of Sri Lanka in the Nineties
 
A.S. Jayawardena Governor,Central Bank of Sri Lanka
  

February 19, 2002
 
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A New Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring Anne Krueger First Deputy Managing Director, IMF | 2001

2001-12-20

A New Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring
 
Dr. Anne Krueger, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF

 

December 20, 2001
 
Dr. Anne Krueger, former Professor at Stanford University and currently the First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), began her lecture by noting that international co-operation among countries is a basic prerequisite to deal with many issues-social, economic, and political-which, by themselves, cannot be dealt with by the individual countries alone. In the lecture, organised by ICRIER, Dr. Krueger pointed out that the international community, and the IMF in particular, has been working towards strengthening the international financial system. While there has been some progress since the financial crises of 1997/98, the problem of some countries having unsustainable external debts continues to loom large. Dr. Krueger stressed that it was not always a good idea for the IMF to give more loans to highly indebted countries, as it merely raised the value of the debts without helping the debtor countries. Instead, Dr. Krueger advocated the adoption of a new approach towards restructuring of sovereign debt. 

Dr. Krueger emphasised that her proposals were aimed at taking a balanced view of the interests of debtor nations and their creditors. Among the key elements of her proposals for an ideal debt restructuring process were: there would be a time bound standstill on debt repayments once a country had been judged to be suffering from unsustainable external debt, minority creditors could not disrupt negotiations on debt restructuring through recourse to courts, debtor countries must follow sound economic policies during the debt restructuring process, and debt restructuring should ensure equitable treatment of all creditors. According to her plan, the IMF would be an honest broker in the debt restructuring process. Dr. Krueger pointed out that while debt restructuring would not be easy, her proposal could make a contribution to economic welfare by reducing the occurrence of economic crises. She noted that while her ideas had received considerable support, they were still some distance from being formally accepted by the IMF Executive Board and the international community. 

Dr. Krueger's presentation was followed by a lively question-answer session with the active participation of the audience, consisting of economists, researchers, policy makers, diplomats and media persons. Mr. C.M. Vasudev, Secretary, Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, chaired the event.



First K. B. Lall Lecture "The International Financial System--A New Partnership" Dr. Mervyn King, Deputy Governor, Bank of England | 2001

2001-08-09

First K. B. Lall Lecture
 
The International Financial System--A New Partnership

Dr. Mervyn King, Deputy Governor, Bank of England





August 9, 2001
 
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Role of Venture Capital in India: Past Experience, Recent Initiatives and Future Potential K.B.Chandrasekhar | 2001

2001-07-09

Past Experience, Recent Initiatives and Future Potential
 
K.B.Chandrasekhar



July 9, 2001
 


China, WTO and its Impact on India Jairam Ramesh | 2001

2001-05-25

China, WTO and its Impact on India
 
Jairam Ramesh



May 25, 2001
 
Text available in PDF.


Reforms, Investment Climate and Economic Growth Nicholas Stern | 2001

2001-03-27

Reforms, Investment Climate and Economic Growth
 
Nicholas Stern



March 27, 2001
 
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WTO and India T.N.Srinivasan | 2001

2001-03-13

WTO and India
 


March 13, 2001


Key Issues facing the Global Economy and their Implications for Emerging Markets Michael Mussa | 2001

2001-01-22

Key Issues Facing the Global Economy and their Implications for Emerging Markets
 
Michael Mussa



January 22, 2001


Exchange Rates Regimes, Macro Economic Crises and The Latin American Experience Anne Krueger | 2000

2000-12-16

Exchange Rates Regimes, Macro Economic Crises and The Latin American Experience.
 
Anne Krueger
 Audience at the lectureDr.Anne Krueger of Stanford University, delivering a lecture jointly organised by ICRIER and the India Habitat Center 
 
December 16, 2000
 
Prof Anne Krueger of Stanford University delivered a public lecture on “Exchange Rate Regimes, Macroeconomic Crises and the Latin American Experience,” organised by ICRIER and the India Habitat Centre on 16 December 2000. She presented several examples from the Latin American experience to emphasise that attempts to maintain stable exchange rates in the face of domestic monetary and fiscal policy imbalances tended to create crises, which are difficult to handle without depressing economic growth. She also illustrated how capital controls, which have been deployed by many countries, with various socio-political objectives, were ineffective in an open economy framework in which trade was freely allowed. Capital controls are sometimes used to target the nominal exchange rate. Prof Krueger argued that this policy was not a first-best policy and entailed significant costs in the long run.


Managing International Financial Integration Kenneth Kletzer | 2000

2000-11-14

Managing International Finacial Integration
 
Kenneth Kletzer



(Prof.Kenneth Kletzer of the University of California,Santa Cruz, delivering a lecture jointly organised by ICRIER and ASSOCHAM)

November 14, 2000
 
Prof Kenneth Kletzer of the University of California, Santa Cruz, and currently at the IMF, delivered a lecture on “Managing Financial Liberalisation.” This lecture was organised jointly by ICRIER and ASSOCHAM on 14 November 2000. In analysing the challenges that confront liberalising economies, Prof Kletzer traced the historical evolution of the global financial system, examined the possible causes of the East Asian crisis and highlighted the lessons that should be learnt by other countries. In particular, he emphasised that those countries that desire to maintain tightly managed currency pegs, must ensure that the pegged rate is compatible with other aspects of financial and macroeconomic policies. He also highlighted the role of investors ’ expectations in influencing capital flows.


China and The WTO: The Transparency Issue Dr. Sylvia Ostry | 2000

2000-10-12

China and The WTO: The Transparency Issue
 


October 12, 2000
 
Dr Sylvia Ostry of the University of Toronto, delivered a lecture on “China and the WTO: The Transparency Issue,” at ICRIER on 12 October 2000. According to Dr Ostry, there is at present a considerable mismatch between the WTO transparency requirements and the legal regime in China. The latter is embedded in historical and cultural traditions and, in spite of some reforms over the past decade, the progress is still insufficient to implement the transparency requirements of the WTO protocol. A concerted technical assistance programme with a link to the accession protocol is essential, if WTO membership is to serve the dual purpose of encouraging Chinese reforms and strengthening the global, rule-based trading system. China’s entry into the WTO should not be pushed too fast without adequate preparation and assessment of the implications of its membership on the dispute resolution system of the WTO.
 
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India's Emergence as a Knowledge Super Power:The Vision and the Strategy Dr.R.A.Mashelkar, Director, General,CSIR | 2000

2000-09-13

India's Emergence as a Knowledge Super Power:The Vision and the Strategy
 
R.A.Mashelkar



(Dr.R A Mashlekar, Director General, CSIR and member, Governing Body of ICRIER, delivering a lecture on "India's Emergence as a Knowledge Superpower," jointly organised by ICRIER and the India Habitat Center.)

September 13, 2000
 
At the Habitat Talk, jointly arranged by ICRIER and the India Habitat Centre on 13 September 2000, Dr R A Mashelkar, Director General of CSIR, spoke on "India's Emergence as a Knowledge Superpower." Beginning with the view that dreams do come true, if you dare to dream, and that is the daring that he is going to do, Dr Mashelkar spelt out his vision of India as a knowledge superpower. In highlighting the numerous advantages that India has in knowledge based activities, Dr Mashelkar emphasised the importance of strategic alliances in the context of global competition. He also emphasised the need for investment in human capital. Spelling out the advantages that India will derive from the demographic transition in the coming decade, he pointed out that by 2015, close to 55 per cent of India's population will be less than 20 years old, and that it is this age group that will decide the future of India in the 21 st century. Dr Mashelkar emphasised that information technology could do for the Indian economy today what the development of textiles and railways did for the industrial revolution in Britain and the USA, or for that matter what timber and the dairy industry did for Sweden and Denmark, respectively. He pointed out that the knowledge industries would help improve the productivity performance of the broader industrial sector in the economy. At the same time, he stressed the importance of reforming the brick and mortar economy in order that the click economy take off effectively. An enlightened policy environment should help realise the potential of the underlying competitive strength of India in the knowledge-based industries.


The Role of Japan and the Emerging Asia Dr. Eisuke Sakakibara | 2000

2000-03-27

The Role of Japan and the Emerging Asia
 
Dr. Eisuke Sakakibara
Professor at Keio University, Japan



March 27, 2000
 


A Vision for the Japanese Economy in the 21st Century Naoki Tanaka | 2000

2000-03-02

A Vision for the Japanese Economy in the 21st Century
 
Naoki Tanaka



March 2, 2000
 


Are Financial Crises the Necessary Consequence of Capital Account Convertibility? Kenneth Kletzer, Department of Economics, University of California, | 1999

1999-12-21

Are Financial Crises the Necessary Consequence of Capital Account Convertibility?
 
Kenneth Kletzer



December 21, 1999
 
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Strengthening the International Financial Architecture: The Role of Emerging Markets Prof. Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science, University of California, Berkeley | 1999

1999-12-13

Strengthening the International Financial Architecture: The Role of Emerging Markets
 
Prof. Barry Eichengreen,
George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee
Professor of Economics and Political Science,
University of California, Berkeley



December 13, 1999
 
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Strengthening the International Financial Architecture: The Role of Emerging Markets Prof. Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science, University of California, Berkeley December 13, 1999 Te | 1999

1999-11-26

Privatisation and Liberalisation: An International Perspective
 
Lord David Currie, Deputy Dean for External Relations,
Professor of Economics and Governor at London Business School, U.K.



November 26, 1999


Economic Reform: Content, Progress, Prospects John Williamson, Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics, | 1999

1999-11-23

Economic Reform: Content, Progress, Prospects John Williamson, Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics
 
Delivered at a Joint ICRIER - M.S. University of Baroda Seminar at Baroda

Nov 23, 1999
 
About the Author
 
DR. JOHN WILLIAMSON is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for International Economics since 1981. He was on leave as Chief Economist for South Asia at the World Bank during 1996-99, economics professor at Pontifica Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (1978-81), University of Warwick (1970-77), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1967, 1980), University of York (1963-68), and Princeton University (1962-63); Adviser to the International Monetary Fund (1972-74); and Economic Consultant to the UK Treasury (1968-70). He is author or editor of numerous studies on international monetary and developing world debt issues, including The Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime (1996), What Role for Currency Boards? (1995), Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates (1994), The Political Economy of Policy Reform (1993), Economic Consequences of Soviet Dis-Integration (1993), Trade and Payments After Soviet Disintegration (1992), From Soviet Disunion to Eastern Economic Community? with Oleh Havrylyshyn (1991), Currency Convertibility in Eastern Europe (1991), Latin American Adjustment: How Much Has Happened? (1990), and Targets and Indicators: A Blueprint for the International Coordination of Economic Policy with Marcus Miller (1987).
 
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Does India Need New Politics? Content, Progress, Prospects Lord Meghnad Desai, Professor, London School of Economics | 1999

1999-11-22

Does India Need New Politics? Content, Progress, Prospects
 
Lord Meghnad Desai, Professor, London School of Economics

Nov 22, 1999
 
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Does India Need New Politics? Content, Progress, Prospects Lord Meghnad Desai, Professor, London School of Economics Nov 22, 1999 Text Available in PDF | 1999

1999-10-22

Corporate Governance
 
N.R. Narayana Murthy, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Infosys Technologies Limited 



October 22, 1999


India's Emergence as a Knowledge Super Power:The Vision and the Strategy R.A.Mashelkar (Dr.R A Mashlekar, Director General, CSIR and member, Governing Body of ICRIER, delivering a lecture on "India's Emergence as a Knowledge Superpower," jointly orga | 2000

1999-04-14

Health as a Crucial Factor in Economic Growth
 
Prof. Jeffrey Sachs Director,Center for International Development and Galen L.Stone Professor of International Trade Harvard University

 

On the occasion of the second meeting of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health (CMH), Prof. Jeffery Sachs gave a public lecture, organised jointly by WHO, Delhi and ICRIER. The lecture was chaired by Dr. Manmohan Singh.

April 14, 2000


Do Economic Sanctions Work? C. Fred Bergsten, Director IIE | 1999

1999-03-11

Do Economic Sanctions Work?
 
Dr. Bergsten, Director, Institute for International Economics.



March 11, 1999
 
About Dr. C. Fred Bergsten
 
DR. C. FRED BERGSTEN is a Director of the Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C. since its creation in 1981. He has been the Chairman of the Eminent Persons Group (EPG) of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum, Chairman of the Competitiveness Policy Council created by the U.S. Congress since 1991. He was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs during 1977-81, Under Secretary for Monetary Affairs during 1980-81, and Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Council on Foreign Relations. He has authored or co-authored twenty-six books on international economic issues including most recently Global Economic Leadership and the Group of Seven (1996) and Reconcilable Differences? United States-Japan Economic Conflict (1993).
 
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Korea's Financial Crisis of 1997 Seung-Soo Han, Member of National Assembly and Former Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, Korea | 1999

1999-02-15

Korea's Financial Crisis of 1997
 
Organised jointly with CII Seug-Soo Han



February 15, 1999
 
About Dr. Seung-Soo Han
 
Dr. Anne Krueger, former Professor at Stanford University and currently the First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), began her lecture by noting that international co-operation among countries is a basic prerequisite to deal with many issues-social, economic, and political-which, by themselves, cannot be dealt with by the individual countries alone. In the lecture, organised by ICRIER, Dr. Krueger pointed out that the international community, and the IMF in particular, has been working towards strengthening the international financial system. While there has been some progress since the financial crises of 1997/98, the problem of some countries having unsustainable external debts continues to loom large. Dr. Krueger stressed that it was not always a good idea for the IMF to give more loans to highly indebted countries, as it merely raised the value of the debts without helping the debtor countries. Instead, Dr. Krueger advocated the adoption of a new approach towards restructuring of sovereign debt. 

Dr. Krueger emphasised that her proposals were aimed at taking a balanced view of the interests of debtor nations and their creditors. Among the key elements of her proposals for an ideal debt restructuring process were: there would be a time bound standstill on debt repayments once a country had been judged to be suffering from unsustainable external debt, minority creditors could not disrupt negotiations on debt restructuring through recourse to courts, debtor countries must follow sound economic policies during the debt restructuring process, and debt restructuring should ensure equitable treatment of all creditors. According to her plan, the IMF would be an honest broker in the debt restructuring process. Dr. Krueger pointed out that while debt restructuring would not be easy, her proposal could make a contribution to economic welfare by reducing the occurrence of economic crises. She noted that while her ideas had received considerable support, they were still some distance from being formally accepted by the IMF Executive Board and the international community. 

Dr. Krueger's presentation was followed by a lively question-answer session with the active participation of the audience, consisting of economists, researchers, policy makers, diplomats and media persons. Mr. C.M. Vasudev, Secretary, Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, chaired the event.
 
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What should be India's Economic Priorities in a Globalising World Lord Meghnad Desai, London School of Economics | 1999

1999-01-06

What Should be India's Economic Priorities in Globalising World?
 
Lord Meghnad Desai, Professor,
London School of Economics



January 6, 1999
 
About Lord Meghnad Desai
 
LORD MEGHNAD DESAI, Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science, is currently the Director of the Centre for the Study of Global Governance, London School of Economics. Born in July 1940, he was educated at the University of Bombay. He secured his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania, USA. He has written extensively on a wide range of subjects. From 1984-1991, he was co-editor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics. He has been both Chair and President of Isligton South and Pinsbury Constituency Labour Party in London and was made a peer in April 1991. He is currently Chairman of the Trustee’s Board for Training for Life, Chairman of the Management Board of City Roads and on the Board of Tribune magazine.
 
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What should be India's Economic Response to Sanctions? Prof. Jagdish Bhagwati, Arthur Lehman Professor of Economics and Professor of Political Science, Columbia University | 1998

1998-07-17

What should be India's Economic Response to Sanctions?
 
Prof. Jagdish Bhagwati, Arthur Lehman
Professor of Economics and Professor of Political Science,
Columbia University



July 17, 1998
 
About Prof. Jagdish Bhagwati
 
PROF. JAGDISH BHAGWATI, is the Arthur Lehman Professor of Economics and Professor of Political Science at Columbia University. Since May 1991 he has been the Economic Policy Advisor to the Director-General of the GATT. Until 1980 he was Ford International Professor of Economics at MIT. His early work, especially India : Planning for Industrialization (written with his wife, Padma Desai), provided the intellectual underpinnings for the current economic reforms in India. He has published extensive, and writes frequently for The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Financial Times. A founder-editor of the Journal of International Economics and Economics and Politics, Professor Bhagwati is a Fellow of the Econometric Society and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He has received several prizes and honorary degrees.