India’s red-carpet welcome to Russian President Vladimir Putin comes amid a broader geo-political realignment of major powers in the world, reshaped by security partnerships, financial systems, and trade flows. The key issue for India is: can President Putin help India in softening the blow of punitive tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump of US? The answer is mixed. The summit signalled sovereign diplomacy, strengthening ties with Russia while protecting India’s large trade interests in the US and EU. New agreements with Russia and renewed emphasis on trade corridors, including the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor, and the Northern Sea Route, are central to the interests of both countries to achieve USD 100 billion target in bilateral trade by 2030. Russia’s rapid ratification of the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics (RELOS) goes beyond a logistical arrangement, signalling a deep, trust-based strategic partnership through reciprocal maritime access for India and Russia. However, India is on a diplomatic tightrope, at a sensitive stage as trade talks with US and EU are still underway, and one is not sure how US and EU will view this visit of President Putin to India.
In any case, focusing on bilateral trade between Russia and India, it is very clear that as on today, it remains heavily skewed in favour of Russia: India imported goods worth USD 63.8 billion in 2024-25 mainly comprising of discounted Russian crude oil, while exporting only USD 4.9 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 58.9 billion. Russia imported goods worth USD 208 billion, mainly from China (55.4 per cent), Kazakhstan (4.6 per cent) and Türkiye (4.1 per cent). Major imports are machinery and mechanical appliances (USD 37.3 billion), auto-parts (USD 29.3 billion), electrical machinery (USD 20.7 billion), pharmaceuticals (USD 12.4 billion), and textiles and apparel (T&A) (USD 13.1 billion).
In this context, this policy brief assesses the scope of increasing Indian exports to Russia, focusing on select sectors, hard-hit by Trump’s tariffs. In T&A, India faces a significant disadvantage due to 13-14 per cent tariffs, compared to zero-duty for Vietnam. In fisheries, although India’s seafood exports total USD 7.4 billion (2024-25), exports to Russia remain limited at USD 138 million, confined to frozen shrimp. Given Russia’s USD 2.12 billion import, significant untapped potential exists in mackerel, trout and other value-added products. In case of agriculture, high-value segments, including processed fruits and vegetables and animal products such as bovine meat create clear openings. Yet high tariffs, SPS barriers, certification delays and logistics costs persist.
A multi-pronged strategy including strengthening freight and insurance support for exporters; accelerating rupee-rouble settlements; upgrading value-chains for perishable and high-value products; securing tariff parity with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and improving logistics and certification systems to reduce compliance costs, is essential to mitigate tariff shocks and rebalance India-Russia trade in a volatile global trade and political environment.
